Experts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast that the Sultanate of Oman’s economic growth will accelerate to 4.5% in 2026, driven by increased oil sector activity and continued growth in non-oil activities of 1.4%. Inflation is expected to average around 3% in 2026 before gradually declining to approximately 2% over the medium term.

The forecasts were outlined in a statement issued at the conclusion of the IMF mission’s meetings with Oman. The Fund expects the country’s fiscal position to remain strong in 2026 and 2027, supported by fiscal discipline while allowing investment in economic resilience and diversification.

The IMF also projects a current account surplus of around 6.5% of GDP in 2026, with surpluses expected to continue over the medium term.

The IMF mission visited Oman from October 25  to November 8, 2026, for Article IV consultations. Discussions covered economic developments and prospects, fiscal and monetary policies, banking sector performance and economic reform priorities under Oman Vision 2040.

The mission said Oman’s economy has demonstrated strong resilience amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, supported by unaffected energy infrastructure, robust logistics activity and continued prudent economic policies.

According to the IMF statement, Oman’s economy continued to expand, driven by increased oil and gas production and growth in non-oil activities. Real GDP grew by 3.8% in the first half of 2026. Inflation averaged 1% in 2025 before rising to around 3% between January and September 2026, reflecting higher food and shipping costs.

Oman maintained fiscal and current account surpluses in the first half of 2026, reaching 1.9% and 3.7% of GDP respectively. Government debt declined to 30.4% of GDP by the end of June 2026.

The IMF reaffirmed that the Omani rial’s exchange rate peg remains an appropriate and credible anchor for monetary policy.

The Fund also assessed Oman’s banking sector as sound, with strong capital adequacy, liquidity and profitability, and limited direct exposure to sectors most affected by geopolitical tensions. It called for further improvements to the macroprudential policy framework, full implementation of financial safety nets and stronger crisis management arrangements.

The statement highlighted the importance of accelerating economic transformation and strengthening resilience under Oman Vision 2040.